When Renewables Overtake Coal: A Turning Point for Global Electricity

A structural change in the global energy mix

In the first half of 2025, energy production from renewable sources surpassed that from coal. This performance was driven primarily by wind and solar, which grew at rates sufficient to meet almost all of the increase in global electricity demand (+2.6%).

Renewables thus reached a share of 34.3% of global electricity production, while coal stood at 33.1%.

This is not an episodic change, but a sign of a structural transformation of electricity systems on a global scale, supported by infrastructure investments, decarbonization policies, and the technological maturity of renewable sources.

Electrical systems in transformation

Renewables are overtaking the market at a time when major global economies are accelerating the electrification of consumption and the reduction of fossil fuels. Building comfort, production processes, and mobility are gradually migrating to electric solutions, changing the design logic of energy networks and systems.

The increase in renewable generation is not only affecting countries with a strong tradition of wind power, but also areas that until a few years ago had systems that relied heavily on coal: an indicator of the universality of the trend.

Implications for the HVAC/R and air conditioning industry

For the air conditioning and refrigeration sector, this scenario opens up some clear operational guidelines:

• an ever-increasing share of low-emission electricity makes the electrification of plants a coherent and sustainable choice;
• the heat pump consolidates its position as a key technology for heating and hot water production;
• HVAC/R design must integrate considerations of the source of the energy, not just the local efficiency of the system;
• Intelligent management and dynamic modulation of systems become essential elements, especially in electricity grids with high renewable penetration.

The transition is therefore not just about which systems to install, but how to design, control and maintain them.

The Italian perspective: electrification and the HVAC/R supply chain

In Italy, the increasing share of renewable energy in the national electricity mix offers a favorable context for the diffusion of high-efficiency HVAC/R solutions.
Heat pumps, electric radiant systems, controlled mechanical ventilation with recovery, and advanced control systems are now finding greater technical and environmental legitimacy.

For designers and installers, this means operating in a market where:

• Energy efficiency is no longer an optional goal,
• carbon neutrality of buildings is a real design driver,
• Plant digitalization is an essential component of performance and resilience.

The national HVAC/R supply chain is involved not only in the adoption of technologies, but in the construction of the building's new energy ecosystem.