Renewables: staying put would cost Italy €137 billion.

The energy transition is no longer just a question of objectives, but of economic survival. According to the latest Annual Report from AGICI 's Renewable Energy Observatory (OIR) , presented in Milan, failure to achieve the targets set by the 2024 NECP would cost Italy €137 billion by 2050 , in addition to the potential loss of 342,000 jobs.

In recent years, our country has accelerated the spread of renewables, particularly photovoltaics, but the growth rate remains insufficient to reach the 131 GW target for 2030. With an estimated gap of 17 GW, the risk is that it will slow down not only decarbonization, but also national competitiveness and energy security.

The costs of "doing nothing": more emissions and less employment

Postponing the transition would increase dependence on fossil fuels and exacerbate the economic and environmental impacts. The study estimates that a slowdown in the sector would result in an additional 585 million tons of CO₂, along with the additional consumption of 233 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 10 million tons of fuel oil, and 700,000 tons of coal.

Socially, the price of inaction is equally high: failing to push for renewables would put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk, reducing growth opportunities in the very areas most in need of economic revival.

The opportunity of “doing”: economic and industrial benefits

If Italy were to meet its NECP targets, the overall benefits would exceed €162 billion by 2050.

The benefits would come from lower fossil fuel consumption (47%), reduced emissions (26%), more competitive energy prices (20%) and increased employment (6%).

With an additional investment of approximately €24 billion, the economic and environmental benefits would far outweigh the costs. The message is clear: investing in renewables is worthwhile, not only for sustainability but also for the country's energy and industrial balance.

A more stable system to attract investments

To fully realize this potential, clear rules, rapid authorization times, and coordinated national governance are needed. The lack of a stable regulatory framework continues to be a major obstacle for businesses and investors.

A coherent and predictable regulatory system is essential for fostering the growth of renewables, attracting capital, and consolidating a competitive and sustainable industrial supply chain.