Global demand for oil: in 2028 it will only reach 0.4 mb/d, the International Energy Agency reports

According to the IEA’s recent mid-term report entitled "Oil 2023", the global demand for oil will reach its peak this year, before declining by 2028 to just 0.4 million barrels per day.

A key role will be played by the transport sector, through the expansion of electric vehicles and the spread of biofuels.

Global demand for oil: 0,4 mb/d in 2028

The global demand for oil is showing real signs of slowing down and it may stop in the coming years, mainly due to high prices and concerns about security of the provision caused by the global energy crisis. This situation will accelerate the move to cleaner energy sources.

According to the Agency’s report, considering the current government policies and market trends, the global demand for oil will increase by 6% between 2022 and 2028, reaching a total of 105.7 million barrels per day.

However, despite this cumulative growth, the annual demand growth is expected to decline from 2.4 million barrels per day (current value) to just 0.4 million barrels per day in 2028.

In particular, the use of oil will be drastically reduced especially in the transport sector mainly from 2026 with the expansion of electric vehicles, the growth of biofuels and the improvement of fuel savings that will all significantly reduce consumption, and therefore expenditure.

IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol states: "The shift to a clean energy economy is accelerating with the global demand for oil peaking before the end of this decade, thanks to the advancement of electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies. Oil producers must pay close attention to the increasing pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition". 

At the moment, global oil markets are still facing a slow rebalancing process, after 3 years of turbulent events such as the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The global energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine has caused an unprecedented reorganization of international trade flows and there may be significant restrictions in the global supply of oil in the coming months, because of cuts in supplies.

Download the full report and read all the predictions by the International Energy Agency!