Heat Pumps: Sales Down by 5% in 2023

In 2023, the European heat pump market experienced an unexpected turn, breaking a decade-long growth trend. The sales volume, analyzed across 14 countries on the continent, saw a 5% decline, dropping from 2.77 to 2.64 million units.

This shift had significant repercussions on the sector, pushing several manufacturers to implement drastic measures such as job cuts, affecting nearly 3,000 workers.

Heat Pumps: The Sales Decline in Italy

The sales decline particularly affected countries such as France, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Denmark, Austria, and Switzerland. Although some countries—Portugal, Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany—experienced growth, it was not sufficient to offset the overall decrease.

Furthermore, the negative trend seems to persist, with forecasts indicating a further slowdown for 2024, despite preliminary data from the UK showing a 4% increase in national sales over the past year.

A key factor behind this downturn is the delay in the launch of the EU's Action Plan for heat pumps, initially scheduled for early 2024. The European Commission has postponed the announcement to an unspecified date, in an already uncertain context due to high-interest rates and changes in national policies.

Following the surge in support after the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 2023 saw a reduction or elimination of such support in many countries, with Italy being one of the most affected.

This slowdown threatens not only the EU's climate and energy goals, such as increasing renewable energy in heating to 49% and installing 60 million heat pumps by 2030, but also raises concerns about the effectiveness of current energy policies. Thomas Nowak, Secretary General of the European Heat Pump Association, emphasized the importance of consistent support and clear action plans to navigate these "stormy weather conditions."

Heat Pumps: Fluctuations in Energy Prices Have Discouraged Sales

Fluctuations in energy prices have further complicated the picture, with the drop in fossil gas costs and the tax burden on electricity making heat pumps less attractive than before.

Promoting stable policies and reducing the price gap between gas and electricity through tax incentives and an appropriate carbon price is crucial to making heat pumps a sustainable long-term investment.

In this uncertain context, the timely publication of the EU Action Plan for heat pumps, strongly urged by over 60 CEOs and numerous associations, becomes a fundamental step.

With an estimated total of around 23 million heat pumps installed in Europe by the end of 2023, the potential for greater decarbonization and energy independence remains significant, provided current obstacles are overcome with effective policies and a concrete commitment to supporting the sector.