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IEA, World Energy Outlook 2014: how will the energy market be in 2040?
According to IEA, four main energy sources will satisfy global demand by 2040: oil, renewable and nuclear, coal and natural gas. Renewables will surpass coal in 2040 as the main source of electricity.
IEA (International Energy Agency) published the World Energy Outlook 2014, a report on global energy and its future evolution.
The data and related observations resulting from it do not depict a comforting picture for the planet, indeed, despite the general confidence placed in global agreements on climate and energy (such as the US-China treaty or Paris COP21), a situation of heavy uncertainty and tension seems to be reigning supreme.
Having a time horizon up to 2040, IEA estimates that, within the next twenty years, four main energy sources will lead the global market, satisfying the growing demand for primary energy: oil, renewable and nuclear, coal and natural gas.
Oil
Even if estimates foresee a gradual decrease in the coming years on a global scale, the black gold will reach a high of 104 million barrels per day, with the Middle East surpassing the US as the main supplier and China overtaking America as the largest consumer already in 2030, followed by India, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.
Renewable and nuclear
In the first case, the installed capacity will grow by 60% in the next two decades, mainly concentrated in just four countries (China, India, Korea and Russia).
In the second case, however, the most interesting one, especially in light of recent authoritative reports and studies, it seems that renewables will surpass coal in 2040 as the main source of electricity.
Wind as a renewable energy source, in particular, will benefit from the highest growth, followed by hydroelectric and solar energy. According to Maria Van Der Hoeven, Executive Director at IEA, renewables will become "the world's number one source of electricity generation", also supported by a decrease in costs and state subsidies (expected to hover around 120 billion dollars in 2013).
Coal
While remaining an abundant and relatively safe resource and expecting 15% increase, especially in countries like China and India, its use in the future will be limited by global measures and standards for energy efficiency, reducing local pollution and CO2 emissions.
Natural gas
With an expected growth of 50% in global demand by 2040, natural gas will be the only fossil fuel still rising significantly by that period. Although production levels begin to decline as early as 2030, the United States will maintain their leadership, followed by the emerging markets of Qatar, Australia and East Africa, where liquefied natural gas resources, getting more and more important every day for general safety, are abundant.
The data and related observations resulting from it do not depict a comforting picture for the planet, indeed, despite the general confidence placed in global agreements on climate and energy (such as the US-China treaty or Paris COP21), a situation of heavy uncertainty and tension seems to be reigning supreme.
Having a time horizon up to 2040, IEA estimates that, within the next twenty years, four main energy sources will lead the global market, satisfying the growing demand for primary energy: oil, renewable and nuclear, coal and natural gas.
Oil
Even if estimates foresee a gradual decrease in the coming years on a global scale, the black gold will reach a high of 104 million barrels per day, with the Middle East surpassing the US as the main supplier and China overtaking America as the largest consumer already in 2030, followed by India, Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.
Renewable and nuclear
In the first case, the installed capacity will grow by 60% in the next two decades, mainly concentrated in just four countries (China, India, Korea and Russia).
In the second case, however, the most interesting one, especially in light of recent authoritative reports and studies, it seems that renewables will surpass coal in 2040 as the main source of electricity.
Wind as a renewable energy source, in particular, will benefit from the highest growth, followed by hydroelectric and solar energy. According to Maria Van Der Hoeven, Executive Director at IEA, renewables will become "the world's number one source of electricity generation", also supported by a decrease in costs and state subsidies (expected to hover around 120 billion dollars in 2013).
Coal
While remaining an abundant and relatively safe resource and expecting 15% increase, especially in countries like China and India, its use in the future will be limited by global measures and standards for energy efficiency, reducing local pollution and CO2 emissions.
Natural gas
With an expected growth of 50% in global demand by 2040, natural gas will be the only fossil fuel still rising significantly by that period. Although production levels begin to decline as early as 2030, the United States will maintain their leadership, followed by the emerging markets of Qatar, Australia and East Africa, where liquefied natural gas resources, getting more and more important every day for general safety, are abundant.
