Global oil demand drops to 960,000 barrels per day

Global oil demand continues to grow at an increasingly slower pace. Projections for 2024 indicate an increase of 960,000 barrels per day, a reduction of 100,000 barrels per day compared to the estimates from the previous month.

This slowdown, confirms the IEA, is partly due to weak deliveries from OECD countries, which led to a year-on-year contraction in global demand in March. Additionally, the growth in oil demand in 2025 is expected to be below 1 million barrels per day due to general economic weakness and the accelerated adoption of clean energy technologies.

In 2024, a supply increase of 690,000 barrels per day is expected

In May 2024, global oil supply increased by 520,000 barrels per day, reaching 102.5 million barrels per day, with a seasonal increase in ethanol production in Brazil.

For the entire year, a supply increase of 690,000 barrels per day is expected, driven by a growth of 1.4 million barrels per day in non-OPEC+ countries. For 2025, an overall increase in global supply of 1.8 million barrels per day is projected, with a growth of 1.5 million barrels per day in non-OPEC+ countries.

Refining margins in Asia hit a three-year low in May, approaching the lower limit. Refining profitability on the US Gulf Coast also hit a six-month low, though it remained above European levels.

Crude oil production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised upward by 100,000 barrels per day compared to last month, bringing them to 83.5 million barrels per day and 84.2 million barrels per day, respectively. In the second quarter of 2024, higher production flows from the OECD exceeded the weak flows from China, which fell to its lowest level since the start of the Covid era in April.

Global oil inventories increased by 19.3 million barrels in April 2024, while OECD sector inventories rose by 32.1 million barrels, marking the first monthly increase since October. Preliminary data indicate a further increase of 48.2 million barrels in May.