Air conditioning market 2025: growth for the sector according to Assoclima data

At MCE – Mostra Convegno Expocomfort 2026 , Assoclima presented the results of the 2025 statistical survey on the Italian market for air conditioning system components, highlighting an overall positive trend in the sector.

In 2025, Italy's turnover reached 2,921 million euros , an increase of 8.5% , while national production stood at 1,279 million euros , a growth of 6.4%. These data confirm the central role of the HVAC sector in the energy transition process.

Direct expansion in strong growth

The market is mainly driven by the direct expansion segment, which has recorded significant increases in all the main categories:

• monosplit air conditioners : +16% in volume and +12% in value
• multisplit : +15% in volume and +13% in value
• VRF systems : +12% in volume and +10% in value

This trend is supported by the growing popularity of electric heat pumps, the expansion of the replacement market, and rising summer temperatures, which are driving demand for cooling.

Hydronic stable, but positive signals in high power

The hydronic sector is essentially stable (-0.4% in value), with varying trends across power ranges. Heat pumps between 18 and 50 kW and those over 500 kW are growing, also driven by PNRR-related initiatives, while a slight contraction is observed in smaller sizes intended for residential use.

For water-water solutions and water-cooled chillers, the sector shows a positive trend (+2.9% in value), with signs of growth in the lower and intermediate power ranges.

Positive performances also for the other categories

Encouraging results also for the other technologies analyzed by Assoclima:

• air handling units : +7% in volume and +23% in value
• rooftop : +3% in volume and +7% in value
• terminal units : +3% in volume and +6% in value
• residential mechanical ventilation : +2% in volume and +6% in value

Monoblock and portable air conditioners and close control systems are also growing, confirming the overall vitality of the sector.

Heat pumps: the challenges according to the TEHA study

During the meeting, a study conducted by The European House – Ambrosetti, analyzing the future of heat pumps in Italy, was also presented.

The study highlights how the diffusion of this technology is still limited by economic factors, particularly the ratio between electricity and gas costs. Among the proposals put forward are changes to charges and tariffs, compensation tools, and dedicated energy offers, with the aim of making heat pumps increasingly competitive and consistent with decarbonization objectives.

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